Trapped Between Principle and Power: TDF’s Command at a Crossroads

Tigrayans have long been admired for their principled stance, resilience, and determination in the face of adversity. These traits have been central to the region’s survival and its people’s identity. Yet, in the wake of the genocidal war (2021-2022) and its devastating consequences, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) leadership appears mired in indecision, unable to present a unified front or chart a decisive course. The current situation raises a troubling question: if principle is indeed the hallmark of Tigrayan character, why do TDF commanders and political leaders struggle to reach a consensus and act decisively?

Context: The Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and Its Erosion

The Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) was signed on November 23, 2022, to avert a looming humanitarian crisis caused by the two year genocidal war and the 360-degree siege of Tigray. At the time of the agreement, Amhara forces occupied and controlled Western and Southern Tigray, while Eritrean forces held the North and Northwestern parts of Tigray—both with the support of the Ethiopian federal army. Following the agreement, the federal army evacuated the Northern and Northwestern areas, handing over complete control to Eritrean forces.

To this day, these occupying forces continue to consolidate their hold on these territories through administrative measures, demographic manipulation, and coercion of those who remain in these areas. Making matters worse, thousands of Amhara forces under the banner of “Ye Tekeze Zeb” (or the Tekeze Command) are being mobilized and trained by the Ethiopian army inside Western Tigray Woredas. This blatant militarization further underscores Abiy Ahmed’s ill intentions and long-term strategy to cement the occupation of Tigrayan lands.

Adding to this betrayal, in good faith, the TDF handed over its mechanized artillery to the Ethiopian army as part of the first phase of the CoHA implementation. This was done in the spirit of fostering trust and ensuring the success of the agreement. However, Abiy used this disarmament as an opportunity to regroup, strategize, and consolidate his next move against Tigray. In hindsight, this act of good faith by TPLF and TDF, aimed at peace, was naively exploited by Abiy to outmaneuver Tigray and weaken its defense capabilities.

If the agreement had been properly followed and a faithful political dialogue undertaken, the CoHA have clearly outlined a Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) process that would have appropriately concluded the mission and purpose of the TDF. However, as the agreement remains unfulfilled, Tigray needs the TDF to safeguard its people and territory from ongoing unconstitutional aggression. The TDF’s very existence is rooted in Tigray’s defense against such threats. Until the CoHA is fully implemented, the TDF’s role remains indispensable.

Tigray and its people placed their hopes on implementing this agreement through faithful political dialogue between the parties, alongside thorough monitoring by mediators. However, that promise has been systematically eroded. As detailed in my previous opinion pieces, this erosion is deeply rooted in Abiy Ahmed’s calculated spoiler tactics and refusal to engage sincerely in the political process.

The TPLF’s ability to manage this political dialogue has been severely compromised by Abiy’s relentless maneuvers to derail progress. Now, it appears that the responsibility for safeguarding Tigray’s future rests squarely on the shoulders of the TDF. This opinion piece is to recognize that reality and the urgency it demands.

A Crisis Rooted in Powerlessness

The formation and resilience of the TDF stand as a testament to the extraordinary strength and unity of the Tigrayan people. From its inception, TDF drew unwavering support from every Tigrayan from every walk of life, embodying the collective determination to survive and defend against unimaginable odds. With limited resources and under the most adverse conditions, TDF transformed itself into a formidable force. It defended Tigray and achieved remarkable victories against the combined might of Abiy Ahmed, Isayas Afewerki, and Amhara regional forces—an alliance backed by some of the most advanced modern military equipment.

TDF’s ingenuity was unparalleled. Its primary weaponry source was the enemy it fought, seizing equipment in battle and repurposing it to sustain its operations. This resourcefulness and unparalleled courage were pivotal in enabling TDF to withstand an onslaught that would have crushed most others. These achievements should be a source of immense pride and inspiration for every Tigrayan.

However, TDF’s current “powerlessness” stems not from a lack of capacity or determination but from its profound commitment to peace. TDF has consistently chosen to buy every possible moment of time to pursue a peaceful restoration of Tigray’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within the framework of the Ethiopian Constitution. This restraint is not a sign of weakness but a reflection of TDF’s moral strength and its respect for the principles of coexistence and constitutional order. Yet, this longing for peace has made TDF vulnerable to exploitation by Abiy Ahmed, who has manipulated every gesture of goodwill as an opportunity to undermine Tigray’s position.

Compounding this challenge, some elements within the TDF command appear to be influenced by ideologies championed by a splinter group of the TPLF. These ideologies dangerously align with Abiy Ahmed’s agenda by promoting the notion that Tigray cannot afford another confrontation and must accept “any form of peace,” even if it means surrendering territories and abandoning its people to invaders.

This ideology is not only dangerous but also carries grave consequences for Tigray’s sovereignty, dignity, and future. The idea of submitting to “any peace” as a means to avoid confrontation undermines the sacrifices made by countless Tigrayans and risks legitimizing the occupation of its territories. The TDF command must address this ideological drift decisively and without compromise, reaffirming its duty to defend Tigray’s territorial integrity and the rights of its people.

A Shared Desire for Peace

One undeniable truth is that all Tigrayans—be they TDF, TPLF, other political parties, civic societies, religious institutions, or everyday citizens—want this painful impasse to end without further bloodshed. The desire for peace is universal, rooted in a deep yearning to restore normalcy and dignity to Tigray. This shared will of Tigrayans for a peaceful settlement aligns with the core tenet of the Pretoria Agreement: the restoration of the constitutional order, the status-quo-ante, as it existed before the war.

Yet, this noble wish is being eroded, not from within, but by Abiy Ahmed’s sinister manipulation of politics. Through calculated provocation and exploitation of the post-war vulnerabilities, he has stalled progress and pushed the Tigrayan people closer to their breaking point. His strategy is clear: to exploit Tigray’s exhaustion and goodwill to entrench his power further and deprive Tigray of its rightful claims.

But every will and wish has its limits. Tigray has reached that limit. The people cannot and will not endure endless manipulation and broken promises. The time for TDF and all Tigrayan political leaders to act decisively is now—or never. Delays only serve Abiy’s interests, allowing him to consolidate his strategy and render any reversal of his actions near impossible.

Abiy’s Long-Term Strategy: A Warning for TDF Leadership

Beyond his current provocations, Abiy Ahmed is laying the groundwork for a long-term consolidation of his power. His strategy includes a potential constitutional amendment to dismantle the existing federal system and install a presidential monarchy safe for Oromo dominance. By redrawing boundaries and reorganizing regions to suit his political maneuvers, Abiy seeks to eliminate the foundational principle of self-determination that Tigray and other oppressed regions have long fought to uphold.

If given the time to execute this plan, Tigray will lose irreparably. One of Abiy’s likely scenarios involves carving out western Tigray as a new region dominated by Gondar’s influence if it is not fully annexed under it. This would permanently sever a critical part of Tigray’s territory and render the return of displaced Tigrayans nearly impossible.

A Call to Action: Now or Never

TDF commanders must recognize the urgency of the moment. The stakes have never been higher. The leadership cannot afford to surrender to internal divisions or remain paralyzed by the weight of their challenges. Bold, unified action is essential—not just to confront Abiy’s immediate provocations but also to preempt his long-term strategy.

A Path Forward

1. Public Accountability: TDF leadership must issue a bold public statement holding Abiy accountable for his actions and demanding responsibility for the occupied territories and the plight of displaced Tigrayans.
2. United Front: A concerted and united denouncement of Abiy’s strategy is critical. Fragmentation among Tigrayan leaders only emboldens him and weakens Tigray’s position.
3. Engagement with the International Community: A unified appeal to the international community to reassess the situation and take concrete action is crucial. By exposing Abiy Ahmed’s calculated long-term plans, Tigray’s leadership can press for targeted diplomatic pressure, sanctions, or humanitarian intervention to address the ongoing crisis and prevent further violations of Tigray’s sovereignty.
   
4. Preparedness for Escalation: If peaceful efforts fail and the situation deteriorates further, Tigray will at least have demonstrated its commitment to peace, making any necessary escalation defensible.

Conclusion: The Price of Indecision

The indecision among TDF leadership is not just a crisis of principle; it is a crisis of power. Without bold action, Abiy’s long-term plans will solidify, leaving Tigray weakened and fragmented. The time to act is now. TDF leaders must rise to the challenge for the sake of Tigray’s people, territory, and future. Indecision is not an option.

History will judge this moment, and the TDF leadership must remember it as a time when Tigray’s principles and resilience triumphed over its challenges.