Tigray faces a profoundly agonizing dilemma, one that cuts to the very core of its identity, history, and pragmatic realities of survival in a hostile geopolitical landscape. Two sharply opposing perspectives regarding Western and Southern Tigray dominate current debates. Though diametrically opposed in their proposed solutions, each arises from a shared, desperate desire to ensure Tigray’s future. This analysis seeks to examine these perspectives through the unforgiving lenses of history, geopolitical reality, and the current international political order. The Path of Concession: Relinquishing Land for Life The immediate cause of this agonizing dilemma is the overwhelming military upper hand possessed...

This analysis represents a personal perspective from a technical professional born and raised in Addis Ababa, who later began his career in Tigray in the mid-1990s and spent significant time living and working there. Nowadays, in an era dominated by social media, where individuals from all walks of life actively share their reflections—some even shaping public opinion as social activists—it is easy to overlook the perspectives of the silent majority. These are professionals who keenly observe events but often refrain from expressing their insights openly. I consider myself part of this silent majority, choosing to analyze and interpret the unfolding...

Introduction Almost three years have passed since the signing of the Pretoria Agreement between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). While the guns have largely fallen silent, the promise of peace and restoration for Tigray remains tragically unfulfilled. Tigray entered the Pretoria Agreement with cautious hope—hope that the silence of guns would usher in the dignity of restoration. Yet what followed was not peace, but paralysis; not healing, but abandonment. No meaningful progress has been made in reinstating Tigray’s constitutional rights, nor in the urgent rehabilitation of its devastated social fabric. The...

To the TPLF leadership and those still carrying the torch of the Tigrayan struggle— I write this note not in bitterness but in pain. A pain rooted in the knowledge that many of us have carried for decades: the seeds of today’s betrayal were planted long ago, when the movement began favoring academic resumes and docility over ideological clarity, conviction, and proven commitment to the people’s cause. I was there—in the late 1990s and early 2000s. I witnessed firsthand how individuals like Getachew Reda and Kindeya Gebrehiwot were recruited into the ranks. I worked alongside them at Mekelle University. Let...

Introduction Western Tigray’s historical boundaries, as rigorously documented in this archive of academic and cartographic evidence, reaffirm what Tigrayans have always known: this land is ours, rooted in centuries of identity, governance, and cultural continuity. Today, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration—driven by Oromo-centered ambitions and empowered by the Prosperity Party’s core support base—seeks to forcibly disown and occupy Western Tigray. This is not merely a domestic maneuver, but a calculated strategy: one that exploits interethnic grievances, especially between Tigrayans and Amhara, to entrench a new political order under Oromo dominance. The rhetoric surrounding a so-called “Begemider reclaiming” is as historically...

Abiy Ahmed remains restless in his quest to completely dismantle the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as he once said in the parliament, envisioning its existence reduced to mere dust, scattered irretrievably by the winds of conflict (በዓየር ላይ እንደተበተነ ዱቄት lol). In his March 20, 2025, parliamentary address, Abiy boldly claimed victory over his genocidal war, asserting that he chose peace voluntarily by signing the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA). Yet, subtle cues in his demeanor and delivery suggested an underlying readiness and willingness to resort to military means against the TPLF. Abiy continues to place his faith...

Recent international media coverage depicts Tigray as facing renewed internal strife, factional struggles, and potential conflict. However, these portrayals misinterpret critical aspects of the political landscape, particularly regarding the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and individuals such as Getachew Reda. Misrepresentation of TPLF Dynamics Media outlets like the BBC and Reuters inaccurately label the legitimate majority of TPLF members as a “rival faction” to Getachew Reda’s group. This narrative fails to acknowledge that Getachew’s splinter faction was overwhelmingly rejected (around 95%) by TPLF delegates in May 2024, undermining the legitimacy of democratic decisions. Clarifying Getachew Reda’s Political Legitimacy Initially serving...

The Battle of Adwa in 1896 is immortalized in history as Ethiopia’s defiant stand against Italian colonialism, a moment of African pride and resilience. Widely celebrated as a symbol of Black resistance, it is often presented as a unifying triumph for Ethiopia and a beacon for Pan-Africanism. Yet, beneath this polished narrative lies a troubling reality for Tigrayans, who bore the brunt of the battle and its aftermath. Far from empowering Tigray, Adwa became a turning point that weakened Tigrayan nationalism, exposing it to exploitation by Ethiopian rulers’ intent on centralizing power. This opinion piece unravels the layered consequences of...

The recent African Union (AU) Assembly brought Ethiopia’s fragile peace process into sharp focus, revealing a complex interplay of shifting political strategies and calculated maneuvers. While the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) sought to elevate the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) as an international issue, Abiy Ahmed’s administration worked behind the scenes to control the narrative in its favor. Despite ongoing challenges, the political climate surrounding Ethiopia’s peace process remains highly dynamic, demanding swift adaptability and strategic clarity from Tigray’s leadership. Tigray’s Strategic Diplomacy at the AU Assembly In the lead-up to the AU Assembly, Tigray’s leadership intensified its diplomatic...

Tigray’s Communication Failure and Abiy’s Strategy of Incremental Control Four years ago, Abiy declared that he would “solve the TPLF problem in days, not weeks or months.” And in the first month of the war, he played the role of a victorious commander—marching into peaceful and unarmed Mekelle, boasting that no military had achieved such a feat. He assured Ethiopians that the issue was resolved. But his illusion of swift victory crumbled within months. The war did not end as he promised. Instead, it escalated into a protracted conflict that exposed the limits of his military strategy and the resilience...

The ongoing ሽምግልና efforts in Mekelle, initiated by concerned Tigrayans seeking to unlock the prevailing political deadlock, represent a significant attempt at fostering dialogue and stability in Tigray. If this effort aims to resolve the governance crisis in Tigray through pragmatic restructuring—ensuring a balanced political framework that acknowledges existing realities while upholding Tigray’s core interests—then it deserves recognition. However, while I appreciate the genuine intentions of the mediators, any effort toward reconciliation must be approached with extreme care and diligence. It is crucial to ensure that this process does not inadvertently serve the hidden agendas of third parties seeking to...

In response to Abiy Ahmed’s deceptive calls for peace in Tigray Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s approach towards Tigray reflects a pattern of overconfidence rooted in a calculated yet fundamentally flawed strategy. While his administration may perceive its grip on power as unassailable, history has proven time and again that the Tigrayan struggle transcends brute force—it is an existential question of sovereignty, dignity, and survival. For Tigray and its people, no price is too high when it comes to defending these principles. We have faced overwhelming odds before, enduring devastating wars and systemic marginalization— a deliberate and calculated effort aimed at...

Certain academic elites and factions aligned with Getachew Reda have criticized the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) following the TDF commanders’ declaration of recognizing one TPLF after its 14th congress. These critics accuse the TDF of militarizing politics and failing to grasp the realities of Tigray’s dire circumstances and the existential threats it faces—particularly from Abiy Ahmed’s regime. This critique reflects a troubling detachment from the practicalities of survival. The formation of the TDF was not driven by political ambition but by the necessity to defend Tigray from an existential threat. Confronted with a genocidal campaign and a regime determined to...

Faced with persistent conflicts in Amhara and Oromia, Abiy Ahmed finds himself increasingly cornered. Meanwhile, the TPLF’s strategic evolution signals a growing challenge to his authority. To maintain control and distract from internal instability, he is now seeking to ignite further unrest in the region, seeing an opportunity to reshape the political landscape to his advantage. Abiy Ahmed’s recent political maneuvers further expose his opportunistic and destabilizing approach in the Horn of Africa. ብርጌድ ንሓመዱ (Birgade Nihamedu – BNH), or the “Blue Revolution,” was formed in Europe with the explicit goal of overthrowing Isaias Afwerki by any means necessary, including armed...

As we delve deeper into the quagmire of Tigray’s political impasse, the reality on the ground indicates a troubling intensification of divisions rather than a progression towards resolution. The people of Tigray, burdened by years of war, displacement, and uncertainty, deserve more than political stagnation. In light of this, I propose an immediate restructuring of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) to address the current political deadlock and restore faith in the region’s governance. Proposed Restructuring of TIRA Inclusion of Proportional Representation: To ensure a fair and inclusive governance model, political parties that were excluded from the current cabinet must...

Social media has become a powerful tool for shaping political narratives and advocating for causes, but its impact is far from universally positive. In many developing regions, the unchecked rise of social media activism has often exacerbated divisions, spread misinformation, and created a false sense of authority among those with access to digital platforms. The case of Tigray exemplifies these challenges in stark terms. Tigray, a region with a deeply rooted tradition of grassroots political organization, is home to most people without access to the digital world. Many of them, let alone having access to social media platforms, do not...

At this critical juncture, the well-structured and thoroughly deliberated declaration by TDF commanders, a decision that took days of careful discussion and concluded yesterday, signals an unprecedented move to break the political deadlock within Tigray’s leadership. The statement, issued amid escalating tensions between the TPLF splinter group led by  Getachew Reda and TPLF, underscores the military’s dissatisfaction with the Tigray Interim Administration (TIRA) and its handling of critical issues. marks the decisive action that Tigray desperately needs. The resolution outlined in the 13-point declaration by the TDF commanders aligns well with the proposals of the TPLF’s 14th Congress and includes...

Tigrayans have long been admired for their principled stance, resilience, and determination in the face of adversity. These traits have been central to the region’s survival and its people’s identity. Yet, in the wake of the genocidal war (2021-2022) and its devastating consequences, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) leadership appears mired in indecision, unable to present a unified front or chart a decisive course. The current situation raises a troubling question: if principle is indeed the hallmark of Tigrayan character, why do TDF commanders and political leaders struggle to reach a consensus and act decisively? Context: The Cessation of Hostilities...

The current political crisis in Tigray has reached a critical juncture, threatening to derail the progress made under the Pretoria Agreement and destabilize the region further. I sincerely believe that Abiy Ahmed neither has the desire nor the will to restore the status quo ante nor to bring lasting peace to Tigray and the northern parts of the region. Tigray must prepare itself for an eventual confrontation to secure its political objectives. Nevertheless, this opinion attempts to give a peaceful process a genuine chance. While the Pretoria Agreement provides a framework for peace and reconciliation, it is not an agreement...

The United States and its Western allies have consistently shown a strategic interest in Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray’s politics. Recent actions suggest a concerted effort to weaken or eliminate the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a political force. This approach, often framed as a necessary step to stabilize Ethiopia and align it with neoliberal economic models, is fundamentally flawed. Not only does it misinterpret Ethiopia’s complex political landscape, but it also risks triggering consequences far worse than the crises seen in places like Syria, Libya, or Iraq. A False Narrative of Unity The Western perspective on Ethiopia has long...