The next negotiation will not be decided only by what Tigray demands, but by whether it enters the room as a political party seeking accommodation or as a governing institution asserting constitutional rights. —– Some of what I write here may sound familiar to readers who have followed my recent essays. I repeat these arguments deliberately, not because they have…

The danger is not simply that the Horn is being rearranged without Tigray in the room. The deeper danger is that Tigray may fail to read that rearrangement in time to convert its institutional reconstitution into political leverage. —– Washington is helping rearrange the Horn of Africa around interests that are larger than Tigray, and in some cases larger than…

On pressure, the opponent, and the logic of the decisive moment This memo is long, and intentionally so. It was not written for quick consumption or for emotional reaction. It was written for patient and focused reading. Some parts may need to be read more than once, because the argument being made is not about one event, one actor, or…

On collective responsibility, structural failure, and what genuine political reconstruction requires I would say this “What happened to Tigray was not the failure of a single party or a single leader. It was the failure of a system we all sustained, and until we name that honestly, we will remain trapped in explanations that cannot produce a future.” On May…

Tigray cannot afford to let its internal debate do what its enemies could not. There is a conversation happening inside Tigrayan households, in diaspora living rooms, on social media timelines, and in quiet exchanges between people who love Tigray deeply and disagree about what that love requires right now. It is not a comfortable conversation. It is often not a…

Frameworks may define how others interpret our actions. They must not define how we understand our own survival. The Pretoria Agreement remains the central reference point through which the current situation in Tigray is interpreted externally. It is invoked in diplomatic language, reaffirmed in international statements, and repeatedly presented as the primary path toward stability. In that sense, its role…

If Tigray does not define its own necessity, others will label its survival as provocation. We are entering a moment where actions are already understood, but their meaning is being shaped in advance. What matters now is not just what happens next, but who defines it first. For months, the political environment surrounding Tigray has been reshaped, not through open…

This is not just another political moment. It is a decisive window in which Tigray must either reassert its capacity to act or risk losing it under conditions it does not control. Before going into the details, I want to be clear about one thing: what should we expect from these new emergency power structures that Tigray is now putting…

This is not a competition for political space. It is the work of assembling a foundation that can carry the weight of our collective survival. Tigray has entered a phase that many are observing, few are fully understanding, and not all are interpreting in the same way. Over the past weeks, the discussion has been dominated by extensions, statements, and…

The loudest calls for “peace” today are not about preventing war: they are about preventing Tigray from reorganizing itself into a position where it cannot be manipulated, a narrative pushed from Addis Ababa and amplified by aligned elements within Tigray and across the diaspora. What we are witnessing today is not confusion, and it is not coincidence. It is a…

The window is narrow: act before Ethiopia’s የጨረባ (sham)  election cycle locks today’s realities into tomorrow’s structure. Activate internal political capital: Bring together the remaining strength Tigray still has. Act before the cycle locks: Move before the election cycle makes today’s reality permanent. Force a settlement: Create pressure while it still carries a political cost. Demand movement: Begin real action…

If Ethiopians are serious about revival, they must begin not with slogans or emotionally charged lyrics of unity, but with repentance, apology, and a clear demand for justice, beginning with Tigray, and extending to all those who have suffered under these cycles of violence. I found myself listening to Teddy Afro’s new album this week, not casually, but with attention.…

If war is not the path forward, we must ask a difficult question: what is the cost of avoiding it? At this moment, beneath the noise of competing narratives and rising emotional pressure, one reality is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Tigray does not need war now, and under current conditions, it is not clear that it would benefit from…

Politics does not take its meaning from individuals, but from the collective decisions that bind them. As Tigray scrambles to reassert constitutional order and meaning in the midst of an ongoing crisis, the political space is becoming increasingly tense and uncertain. Tadesse Worede has publicly indicated his intention to continue within the transitional arrangement following the extension of the interim…

A dangerous shift is taking place in how political questions in Tigray are being framed, moving attention away from structure and toward identity.” “There is a development that deserves careful attention…”. The absence of a central, functioning authority in Tigray has created a vacuum that is now being filled by something far more dangerous than simple disagreement. There is a…

The absence of Baito is not a political gap, it is a structural vacuum that no military strength or party dominance can safely replace. I have been in contact with a number of Tigrayan colleagues, both at home and in the diaspora, who have raised serious concerns about the idea of reconstituting the 2020 regional council. Their concerns are not…

For those of you who don’t have time, or the guts, to read through the details, here is the summary of my opinion. And for those who disagree, I am waiting for a written argument, not a social media reaction. What Must Be Done Now 1. Stop waiting. Act now.This is no longer a safe pause. Every day without a…

The danger is no longer only in war, but in what happens while waiting. What makes this moment difficult for Tigray is not that anything is unclear. It is that everything is already known, and yet the response to that knowledge has not fully taken shape. Tigray does not need further explanation about who it is dealing with. That question…

The issue facing Tigray today is not what it wants to achieve, but how clearly it defines the path to get there. This note is written as a constructive reflection at a critical moment in Tigray’s history. It is not meant to challenge intentions, but to strengthen clarity. The issue is not whether the current direction is right or wrong.…

The question is not whether Tigray will align, but how and when it chooses to do so on its own terms. At this moment, the greatest risk facing Tigray is not where the next confrontation may emerge, but how it positions itself in a rapidly shifting alignment before that moment arrives. As the regional balance shifts and old arrangements lose…

If the diagnosis is wrong, then the response, however active it may look, will also be wrong. The United States has been engaged in fragile countries for many years, spending diplomatic energy, supporting negotiations, and trying to prevent collapse before it happens. But if we look carefully at places like Sudan, we see a repeated problem. The issue is not…

… ጽምዶ is not a deviation from a peace process; it is a response to the vacuum created when that process is left unfulfilled. In my earlier opinion pieces, I have tried to clarify what ጽምዶ is and what it is not, why it should not be confused with trust, reconciliation, or ideological convergence, and why it must instead be…

… the immediate path forward requires the weakening, dismantling, or even elimination of TPLF. That conclusion is not strategic; it is reckless! Tigray is navigating one of the most complex and consequential periods in its modern history today. Emerging from a devastating war marked by immense human suffering, loss of life, displacement, famine, and systemic destruction, the region remains under…

There is a growing recognition today that Tigrayan leadership, particularly within the TPLF, is making a deliberate effort to mobilize collective resistance against the possibility of renewed war, while at the same time trying to pursue a peaceful path forward based on restraint and principle. This direction is not only understandable but necessary, especially when we consider the immense human…

I am pleased to share a new component of the Tigray Insights initiative: the Tigray Insights Web Atlas Lab, available at: https://lab.tigrayinsights.net/ This platform is an experimental geospatial environment designed to explore, analyze, and visualize spatial data related to Tigray and the surrounding region. The goal is to gradually build a rich, interactive atlas that can support research, policy discussions,…

The risk of renewed war in northern Ethiopia is not developing in isolation. It is taking shape within a broader process that is less visible but equally dangerous. This process is the gradual construction of a narrative that can normalize what was achieved through force during the 2020–2022 war. What is at stake today is therefore not only whether fighting…

የአሜሪካው አምባሳደር ኤርቪን ማሲንጋ በምዕራብ ትግራይ ያለውን ቀውስ “ውስብስብ” ሲሉ ሲገልጹ፣ ዲፕሎማሲያዊ ገለልተኝነትን አስበው ሊሆን ይችላል፤ ውጤቱ ግን ከገለልተኝነት የራቀ ነው። ቃሉ ውስብስብ ያልሆነውን፣ ይልቁንም ግልጽና ሊታወቅ የሚችልን ህገ-ወጥ ወረራ፣ አስገዳጅ መፈናቀል እና የህገ-መንግስት ጥሰት እውነታን የሚያደበዝዝ ነው። ህገ-መንግስቱ ምንም አይነት ብዥታ አይፈጥርም የብሄሮች፣ ብሄረሰቦችና ህዝቦችን መብት በማክበር በዓለም አቀፍ ደረጃ የሚታወቀው የ1987ቱ (እ.ኤ.አ 1995) የኢትዮጵያ ፌዴራላዊ ዲሞክራሲያዊ ሪፐብሊክ ህገ-መንግስት፣…

When U.S. Ambassador Ervin Massinga described the crisis in Western Tigray as “complex,” the intention may have been to maintain diplomatic neutrality. However, the effect of such language is far from neutral. It introduces ambiguity into a situation that is neither unclear nor difficult to understand. What is unfolding in Western Tigray is not a complicated political puzzle, but a…

Tigray today faces a profoundly agonizing dilemma, one that cuts to the very core of its identity, history, and the harsh realities of survival in a hostile geopolitical environment. At the center of this dilemma are two sharply opposing perspectives regarding Western and Southern Tigray. Though these perspectives differ fundamentally in their proposed solutions, they both arise from the same…

To the TPLF leadership, and to those who still believe they carry the burden of the Tigrayan struggle with honesty and discipline, I write this note not out of bitterness, but out of pain. It is a pain rooted in memory, in observation, and in the bitter confirmation of something that some of us understood long before it became visible…