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Abiy Can Fall and Tigray Can Still Lose

Every path before us carries risk. Our task now is not to settle Tigray's final destination, but to make sure each phase leaves us stronger, less isolated, and still able to choose the next.

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Why Now? What Is Abiy Trying to Prevent?

The attacks on Tigray may be preparation for another war. But I think something else may also be happening: Addis may be trying to force us to move before the new strategic relationships around Tigray become strong enough to change the balance.

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The Next Mistake May Not Come From Weakness

Recovered leverage is not victory. It is a test of judgment: Tigray must turn its growing room to maneuver into durable gains without making the survival of its people depend on assumptions that may prove wrong.

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Fixed Purpose, Open Destination: Why Tigray Needs Direction Without Premature Closure

Mekhete must be anchored in Tigray’s non-negotiable national purpose and guided by clear, measurable objectives. But Tigray should not lock itself into one final political destination before the balance of power, the conduct of its partners, the viability of coexistence, and the growth of its own capacity have revealed which destination can most securely protect its people.

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The Superpower That Cannot See the Horn

America is deeply present in the Horn of Africa, yet increasingly unable to see the region it is trying to stabilize. Ambassador Massinga’s visit to Mekelle is not the story. The framework that sent him is.

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The Burden of Carrying a Nation

መኸተ carried Tigray through an existential struggle. Its next test is whether sacrifice can be converted into lasting national capacity. TPLF carries the greatest responsibility because it leads. But leadership is not ownership. It means correcting weaknesses honestly, preserving public confidence, aligning every institution with national priorities, and organizing committed and capable Tigrayans beyond familiar political circles.

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