{"id":6100,"date":"2025-02-17T23:13:17","date_gmt":"2025-02-17T23:13:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/?p=6100"},"modified":"2025-02-18T03:25:53","modified_gmt":"2025-02-18T03:25:53","slug":"breaking-the-silence-why-tigray-must-speak-with-absolute-clarity-in-the-face-of-manipulated-mediation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/2025\/02\/17\/breaking-the-silence-why-tigray-must-speak-with-absolute-clarity-in-the-face-of-manipulated-mediation\/","title":{"rendered":"Breaking the Silence: Why Tigray Must Speak with Absolute Clarity in the Face of Manipulated Mediation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"6100\" class=\"elementor elementor-6100\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-496be12c elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"496be12c\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c25dc73\" data-id=\"c25dc73\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5f3bc5bb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5f3bc5bb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>Tigray&#8217;s Communication Failure and Abiy\u2019s Strategy of Incremental Control<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Four years ago, Abiy declared that he would \u201csolve the TPLF problem in days, not weeks or months.\u201d And in the first month of the war, he played the role of a victorious commander\u2014marching into peaceful and unarmed Mekelle, boasting that no military had achieved such a feat. He assured Ethiopians that the issue was resolved. But his illusion of swift victory crumbled within months. The war did not end as he promised. Instead, it escalated into a protracted conflict that exposed the limits of his military strategy and the resilience of Tigray\u2019s resistance.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Yet, Abiy did not abandon his ambitions\u2014he simply adapted his methods. He turned to diplomacy, deception, and calculated political maneuvers to achieve what he failed to accomplish by force. One of his most blatant manipulative acts came in the form of the <strong>Andinet Park ceremony<\/strong>, where he <strong>orchestrated a grand spectacle to recognize the COHA facilitators and signatories.<\/strong> In that ceremony, he cleverly framed himself as a champion of peace while subtly planting <strong>seeds of division within the TPLF leadership<\/strong>\u2014portraying certain figures as visionaries while branding others as obstacles to reconciliation. This deliberate act was <strong>not just about optics\u2014it was a calculated move to weaken Tigray\u2019s internal unity and create friction between political factions.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Abiy\u2019s <strong>most strategic maneuver<\/strong>, however, came in the way he <strong>subverted the COHA agreement itself.<\/strong> Instead of allowing the TPLF to form its <strong>own<\/strong> regional government as stipulated by the agreement, he <strong>manipulated the process to create the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) through a federal proclamation<\/strong>\u2014a move that negated the principles of the COHA and <strong>kept Tigray under de facto federal control.<\/strong> Despite violating the spirit of the peace agreement, he managed to <strong>get away with it unchallenged<\/strong>, using diplomatic maneuvering and media narratives to justify his actions.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">His media campaign was relentless\u2014state-controlled outlets flooded the information space with the claim that <strong>TPLF was obstructing peace efforts<\/strong> and refusing to cooperate. Meanwhile, Abiy\u2019s government worked quietly behind the scenes, ensuring that the <strong>African Union (AU), the World Bank, and the IMF viewed him as the responsible peace broker<\/strong> while painting Tigray\u2019s leadership as the problem. By successfully controlling this narrative, <strong>he deflected attention away from the violations of COHA and shielded his administration from external pressure.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>Abiy\u2019s Weaponization of the NEBE: A Calculated Political Trap<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Another crucial part of Abiy\u2019s manipulation was using<strong> the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) to further dismantle and weaken the TPLF. According to the COHA agreement, TPLF\u2019s status as a legal party should have been automatically reinstated after the federal government reversed its designation of it<\/strong> as a terrorist organization. The Ethiopian Parliament <strong>officially removed TPLF from the terrorist list<\/strong>, but Abiy <strong>refused to restore it as a registered political party.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Instead, he <strong>instructed the NEBE to require TPLF to reapply for registration<\/strong>\u2014a deliberate move to create another bureaucratic roadblock. By doing so, he deprived TPLF of its longstanding legal status and ensured that its <strong>party apparatus remained dismantled, weakened, and unable to function as a legitimate political entity fully.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><h3 data-start=\"4801\" data-end=\"4879\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong data-start=\"4805\" data-end=\"4877\">The AU Assembly and Obasanjo\u2019s Message: A Diplomatic Weapon for Abiy<\/strong><\/span><\/h3><p data-start=\"4881\" data-end=\"5439\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">The recent AU Assembly highlighted a troubling dynamic in the ongoing Ethiopian conflict. Rather than advocating for the <strong data-start=\"5002\" data-end=\"5034\">full and fair implementation<\/strong> of the Pretoria Agreement, the discussions were dominated by <strong data-start=\"5096\" data-end=\"5147\">Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u2019s preferred narrative<\/strong>. Ethiopia, not Tigray, dictated the <strong data-start=\"5184\" data-end=\"5214\">tone, agenda, and outcomes<\/strong>. This imbalance was reinforced by <strong data-start=\"5249\" data-end=\"5296\">former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo<\/strong>, the AU\u2019s lead mediator, who issued a thinly veiled warning: <strong data-start=\"5358\" data-end=\"5436\">unresolved issues should not undermine or reverse the agreement\u2019s progress<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p><p data-start=\"5441\" data-end=\"5688\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">At first glance, this statement might appear neutral. In reality, it was a <strong data-start=\"5516\" data-end=\"5635\">calculated move to shift the burden of the agreement\u2019s success onto Tigray while shielding Abiy from accountability<\/strong>. Obasanjo\u2019s framing conveyed three clear messages:<\/span><\/p><ol data-start=\"5690\" data-end=\"5960\"><li data-start=\"5690\" data-end=\"5786\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong data-start=\"5693\" data-end=\"5739\">The agreement will proceed on Abiy\u2019s terms<\/strong>, regardless of Tigray\u2019s legitimate concerns.<\/span><\/li><li data-start=\"5787\" data-end=\"5884\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong data-start=\"5790\" data-end=\"5831\">Tigray must not challenge the process<\/strong>, even if Ethiopia fails to uphold its commitments.<\/span><\/li><li data-start=\"5885\" data-end=\"5960\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong data-start=\"5888\" data-end=\"5957\">Any resistance from Tigray will be framed as an obstacle to peace<\/strong>.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><p data-start=\"5962\" data-end=\"6277\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">This type of language is not accidental. <strong data-start=\"6003\" data-end=\"6074\">It is part of a broader strategy to pressure Tigray into compliance<\/strong> while granting Abiy the <strong data-start=\"6099\" data-end=\"6161\">flexibility to implement\u2014or ignore\u2014the COHA as he sees fit<\/strong>. It is a <strong data-start=\"6171\" data-end=\"6274\">diplomatic tactic that punishes those demanding justice and rewards those controlling the narrative<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p><p data-start=\"6279\" data-end=\"6674\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Obasanjo\u2019s reference to <strong data-start=\"6303\" data-end=\"6352\">\u201ccontested territories\u201d remaining independent<\/strong> is particularly <strong data-start=\"6369\" data-end=\"6382\">dangerous<\/strong>, as it directly <strong data-start=\"6399\" data-end=\"6474\">legitimizes Abiy\u2019s long-term plan to strip Tigray of its rightful lands<\/strong>. This statement aligns with <strong data-start=\"6503\" data-end=\"6607\">Abiy\u2019s strategy to maintain Amhara and Eritrean occupation in Western, Southern, and Northern Tigray<\/strong> while keeping Tigray politically weak and economically isolated.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>The Most Challenging and Critical Issue: Western and Southern Tigray<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">The most pressing and politically volatile issue in this entire process is the <strong>carefully orchestrated and strategically planned settlement of Amharas in Western and Southern Tigray<\/strong>\u2014an effort deliberately designed by Abiy Ahmed to permanently alter the demographic and political landscape of these regions. Abiy promised the Amhara political elite that he would deliver these Tigrayan territories into their hands, granting them land, homes, and administrative control.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">This is the most significant obstacle to peace because it represents an <strong>existential struggle for Tigray<\/strong>. If Tigray fails to reclaim these lands and restore their original populations, the very foundation of its autonomy and identity will be undermined.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">However, reversing this settlement program is <strong>not just a matter of policy \u2014 it is a colossal political and logistical challenge<\/strong>. According to unofficial sources, <strong>at least 200,000 settlers have already been placed in Western Tigray alone<\/strong>. These settlers now consider the land their permanent home. Many do not recognize that they are living on stolen land, as they were deliberately mobilized and fed government propaganda that Tigray\u2019s territories were \u201chistorically Amhara.\u201d<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">This is where Abiy\u2019s <strong>real trap lies<\/strong>\u2014he knows that international bodies are often hesitant to support mass relocation, even when the settlers were illegally placed. <strong>By delaying the implementation of COHA, he ensures that settlement becomes an irreversible reality.<\/strong> The longer these settlers stay, the harder it becomes to remove them.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>Why Removing Settlers is Critical<\/strong><\/span><\/p><ol><li><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>Avoiding Permanent Occupation<\/strong>: Every day that passes without action further legitimizes the settlers\u2019 presence. Abiy is betting on <strong>creating facts on the ground<\/strong>\u2014a well-known colonial strategy that slowly normalizes occupation. If this continues unchecked, Tigray risks permanently losing these territories.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>Preventing Ethnic Redesign of Tigray<\/strong>: These settlements were not organic; they were state-sponsored. If left in place, they will <strong>alter the ethnic composition of Tigray<\/strong>, weakening its historical and political claim to its own land.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>Sending a Clear Message<\/strong>: If Tigray fails to reclaim its lands, it signals <strong>weakness<\/strong> and invites further aggression. <strong>Nothing less than full restoration is acceptable.<\/strong><\/span><\/li><\/ol><h3 data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"89\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"4\" data-end=\"87\">The Role of \u2018YeTekeze Zeb\u2019 (Tekeze Guard) Militia<\/strong><\/span><\/h3><p data-start=\"91\" data-end=\"459\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\">The <strong data-start=\"95\" data-end=\"126\">Tekeze Guard (YeTekeze Zeb)<\/strong>, a militia force <strong data-start=\"144\" data-end=\"231\">trained and armed under the direct guidance of Ethiopia\u2019s federal military generals<\/strong>, presents an additional <strong data-start=\"256\" data-end=\"269\">roadblock<\/strong> to removing<strong data-start=\"277\" data-end=\"308\"> illegal settlers<\/strong> from Western Tigray. These militia forces were <strong data-start=\"369\" data-end=\"456\">armed and actively integrated into the Ethiopian army strategy<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p><p data-start=\"461\" data-end=\"758\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\">The federal army generals openly celebrated and admired the Tekeze Guard&#8217;s role in Abiy\u2019s fight against the Amhara forces (Fano), proving that these militias were not just rogue elements but a structured force that Abiy strategically leveraged for his political and territorial objectives.<\/span><\/p><h3 data-start=\"760\" data-end=\"831\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"764\" data-end=\"829\">Why \u2018YeTekeze Zeb\u2019 Is a Major Obstacle to COHA Implementation<\/strong><\/span><\/h3><ol data-start=\"832\" data-end=\"1841\"><li data-start=\"832\" data-end=\"1063\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"835\" data-end=\"876\">Settlers and Militias Are Interlinked<\/strong>\u2014Many of the Tekeze Guard fighters <strong data-start=\"911\" data-end=\"938\">are settlers themselves<\/strong>, meaning that removing the settlers is not just a civilian relocation issue but also <strong data-start=\"1024\" data-end=\"1061\">a military disarmament challenge.<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li data-start=\"1064\" data-end=\"1258\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"1067\" data-end=\"1115\">A Built-In Justification for Future Conflict<\/strong>\u2014Abiy <strong data-start=\"1121\" data-end=\"1189\">knows that disbanding these armed militias will trigger a backlash<\/strong>, creating <strong data-start=\"1200\" data-end=\"1256\">yet another excuse for delaying COHA implementation.<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li data-start=\"1259\" data-end=\"1542\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"1262\" data-end=\"1303\">A Deliberate Destabilization Strategy<\/strong>\u2014By embedding <strong data-start=\"1317\" data-end=\"1381\">heavily armed militias within the illegal settler population<\/strong>, Abiy has made the issue <strong data-start=\"1407\" data-end=\"1427\">far more complex<\/strong>\u2014ensuring that <strong data-start=\"1442\" data-end=\"1540\">any attempt to return Tigray\u2019s rightful lands could lead to escalated military confrontations.<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li data-start=\"1543\" data-end=\"1841\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"1546\" data-end=\"1586\">A Hidden Threat to Tigray\u2019s Security<\/strong>\u2014Even if Ethiopia <strong data-start=\"1604\" data-end=\"1640\">theoretically agrees to withdraw<\/strong> its federal forces, the <strong data-start=\"1665\" data-end=\"1725\">presence of a militia embedded in the settler population<\/strong> means that a <strong data-start=\"1739\" data-end=\"1780\">potential fifth column remains behind<\/strong>, threatening any meaningful return of displaced Tigrayans.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h3 data-start=\"1843\" data-end=\"1928\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"1847\" data-end=\"1926\">The Need for Clear Communication on Settler Removal and Militia Disarmament<\/strong><\/span><\/h3><p data-start=\"1929\" data-end=\"2166\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\">Tigrayan politicians <strong data-start=\"1950\" data-end=\"1979\">must clearly and publicly<\/strong> state that <strong data-start=\"1991\" data-end=\"2164\">returning Western and Southern Tigray is not just about settlers\u2014it is also about dismantling the militarized structures that Abiy has embedded within these territories.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p data-start=\"2168\" data-end=\"2196\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\">They must articulate that:<\/span><\/p><ul data-start=\"2197\" data-end=\"2616\"><li data-start=\"2197\" data-end=\"2349\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"2199\" data-end=\"2347\">The COHA\u2019s success depends not just on returning displaced Tigrayans but also on the full demilitarization of YeTekeze Zeb and similar militias.<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li data-start=\"2350\" data-end=\"2481\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"2352\" data-end=\"2479\">The Ethiopian government must take responsibility for ensuring that militias do not remain behind as a destabilizing force.<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li data-start=\"2482\" data-end=\"2616\"><span style=\"font-family: georgia, palatino; font-size: 18px;\"><strong data-start=\"2484\" data-end=\"2614\">Any attempt to use armed settlers as a justification for delaying the return of displaced Tigrayans must be rejected outright.<\/strong><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>What Tigray Must Say Clearly<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Tigray\u2019s leadership must abandon vague, open-ended statements and speak in <strong>absolute, unambiguous terms<\/strong>:<\/span><\/p><ul><li><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>Abiy\u2019s selective implementation of the COHA must be challenged<\/strong>: No real peace can exist while Ethiopian, Amhara, and Eritrean forces remain in occupied Tigrayan territories.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>The return of displaced Tigrayans is non-negotiable<\/strong>: It is not enough to say that IDPs should return \u201cgradually\u201d or \u201cwhen conditions allow.\u201d A transparent, monitored process must be enforced.<\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>All illegal settlers in Western and Southern Tigray must leave immediately.<\/strong><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>No federal administration over occupied territories<\/strong>: The AU must not be allowed to frame this as a neutral compromise. Any federal control over Tigrayan lands is occupation and must be rejected outright.<\/span><\/li><\/ul><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\"><strong>The Consequences of Failing to Be Clear<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">The alternative is not just a loss in negotiations\u2014it is the slow erosion of Tigray\u2019s very existence. If Tigray\u2019s leaders fail to assert themselves clearly, Abiy will continue manipulating the process until the region is carved up beyond repair. <strong>There is no room for compromise on this issue\u2014Tigray\u2019s survival depends on absolute clarity and unwavering resolve.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Moving forward, <strong>Tigray must demand legally binding commitments with clearly defined enforcement mechanisms<\/strong>. It must stop relying on ambiguous diplomatic engagements that allow Abiy to dictate terms. <strong>If clarity is not ensured from the negotiation phase, the implementation and monitoring phases will be doomed to failure.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Tigray has already seen how a lack of clarity in COHA led to the manipulation of the IRA formation, the continuation of occupation in Western and Southern Tigray, and Abiy\u2019s unchecked diplomatic victories. <strong>This cannot happen again.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-size: 18px; font-family: georgia, palatino;\">Tigray must dictate the terms of its survival\u2014not wait for others to define them.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tigray&#8217;s Communication Failure and Abiy\u2019s Strategy of Incremental Control Four years ago, Abiy declared that he would \u201csolve the TPLF problem in days, not weeks or months.\u201d And in the first month of the war, he played the role of a victorious commander\u2014marching into peaceful and unarmed Mekelle, boasting that no military had achieved such a feat. He assured Ethiopians that the issue was resolved. But his illusion of swift victory crumbled within months. The war did not end as he promised. Instead, it escalated into a protracted conflict that exposed the limits of his military strategy and the resilience of Tigray\u2019s resistance. Yet, Abiy did not abandon his ambitions\u2014he simply adapted his methods. He turned to diplomacy, deception, and calculated political maneuvers to achieve what he failed to accomplish by force. One of his most blatant manipulative acts came in the form of the Andinet Park ceremony, where he orchestrated a grand spectacle to recognize the COHA facilitators and signatories. In that ceremony, he cleverly framed himself as a champion of peace while subtly planting seeds of division within the TPLF leadership\u2014portraying certain figures as visionaries while branding others as obstacles to reconciliation. This deliberate act was not just about optics\u2014it was a calculated move to weaken Tigray\u2019s internal unity and create friction between political factions. Abiy\u2019s most strategic maneuver, however, came in the way he subverted the COHA agreement itself. Instead of allowing the TPLF to form its own regional government as stipulated by the agreement, he manipulated the process to create the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) through a federal proclamation\u2014a move that negated the principles of the COHA and kept Tigray under de facto federal control. Despite violating the spirit of the peace agreement, he managed to get away with it unchallenged, using diplomatic maneuvering and media narratives to justify his actions. His media campaign was relentless\u2014state-controlled outlets flooded the information space with the claim that TPLF was obstructing peace efforts and refusing to cooperate. Meanwhile, Abiy\u2019s government worked quietly behind the scenes, ensuring that the African Union (AU), the World Bank, and the IMF viewed him as the responsible peace broker while painting Tigray\u2019s leadership as the problem. By successfully controlling this narrative, he deflected attention away from the violations of COHA and shielded his administration from external pressure. Abiy\u2019s Weaponization of the NEBE: A Calculated Political Trap Another crucial part of Abiy\u2019s manipulation was using the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) to further dismantle and weaken the TPLF. According to the COHA agreement, TPLF\u2019s status as a legal party should have been automatically reinstated after the federal government reversed its designation of it as a terrorist organization. The Ethiopian Parliament officially removed TPLF from the terrorist list, but Abiy refused to restore it as a registered political party. Instead, he instructed the NEBE to require TPLF to reapply for registration\u2014a deliberate move to create another bureaucratic roadblock. By doing so, he deprived TPLF of its longstanding legal status and ensured that its party apparatus remained dismantled, weakened, and unable to function as a legitimate political entity fully. The AU Assembly and Obasanjo\u2019s Message: A Diplomatic Weapon for Abiy The recent AU Assembly highlighted a troubling dynamic in the ongoing Ethiopian conflict. Rather than advocating for the full and fair implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, the discussions were dominated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u2019s preferred narrative. Ethiopia, not Tigray, dictated the tone, agenda, and outcomes. This imbalance was reinforced by former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, the AU\u2019s lead mediator, who issued a thinly veiled warning: unresolved issues should not undermine or reverse the agreement\u2019s progress. At first glance, this statement might appear neutral. In reality, it was a calculated move to shift the burden of the agreement\u2019s success onto Tigray while shielding Abiy from accountability. Obasanjo\u2019s framing conveyed three clear messages: The agreement will proceed on Abiy\u2019s terms, regardless of Tigray\u2019s legitimate concerns. Tigray must not challenge the process, even if Ethiopia fails to uphold its commitments. Any resistance from Tigray will be framed as an obstacle to peace. This type of language is not accidental. It is part of a broader strategy to pressure Tigray into compliance while granting Abiy the flexibility to implement\u2014or ignore\u2014the COHA as he sees fit. It is a diplomatic tactic that punishes those demanding justice and rewards those controlling the narrative. Obasanjo\u2019s reference to \u201ccontested territories\u201d remaining independent is particularly dangerous, as it directly legitimizes Abiy\u2019s long-term plan to strip Tigray of its rightful lands. This statement aligns with Abiy\u2019s strategy to maintain Amhara and Eritrean occupation in Western, Southern, and Northern Tigray while keeping Tigray politically weak and economically isolated. The Most Challenging and Critical Issue: Western and Southern Tigray The most pressing and politically volatile issue in this entire process is the carefully orchestrated and strategically planned settlement of Amharas in Western and Southern Tigray\u2014an effort deliberately designed by Abiy Ahmed to permanently alter the demographic and political landscape of these regions. Abiy promised the Amhara political elite that he would deliver these Tigrayan territories into their hands, granting them land, homes, and administrative control. This is the most significant obstacle to peace because it represents an existential struggle for Tigray. If Tigray fails to reclaim these lands and restore their original populations, the very foundation of its autonomy and identity will be undermined. However, reversing this settlement program is not just a matter of policy \u2014 it is a colossal political and logistical challenge. According to unofficial sources, at least 200,000 settlers have already been placed in Western Tigray alone. These settlers now consider the land their permanent home. Many do not recognize that they are living on stolen land, as they were deliberately mobilized and fed government propaganda that Tigray\u2019s territories were \u201chistorically Amhara.\u201d This is where Abiy\u2019s real trap lies\u2014he knows that international bodies are often hesitant to support mass relocation, even when the settlers were illegally placed. By delaying the implementation of COHA, he ensures that settlement becomes an irreversible reality. The longer these settlers stay, the harder it becomes to remove them. Why Removing Settlers is Critical Avoiding Permanent Occupation: Every day that passes without action further legitimizes the settlers\u2019 presence. Abiy is betting on creating facts on the ground\u2014a well-known colonial strategy that slowly normalizes occupation. If this continues unchecked, Tigray risks permanently losing these territories. Preventing Ethnic Redesign of Tigray: These settlements were not organic; they were state-sponsored. If left in place, they will alter the ethnic composition of Tigray, weakening its historical and political claim to its own land. Sending a Clear Message: If Tigray fails to reclaim its lands, it signals weakness and invites further aggression. Nothing less than full restoration is acceptable. The Role of \u2018YeTekeze Zeb\u2019 (Tekeze Guard) Militia The Tekeze Guard (YeTekeze Zeb), a militia force trained and armed under the direct guidance of Ethiopia\u2019s federal military generals, presents an additional roadblock to removing illegal settlers from Western Tigray. These militia forces were armed and actively integrated into the Ethiopian army strategy. The federal army generals openly celebrated and admired the Tekeze Guard&#8217;s role in Abiy\u2019s fight against the Amhara forces (Fano), proving that these militias were not just rogue elements but a structured force that Abiy strategically leveraged for his political and territorial objectives. Why \u2018YeTekeze Zeb\u2019 Is a Major Obstacle to COHA Implementation Settlers and Militias Are Interlinked\u2014Many of the Tekeze Guard fighters are settlers themselves, meaning that removing the settlers is not just a civilian relocation issue but also a military disarmament challenge. A Built-In Justification for Future Conflict\u2014Abiy knows that disbanding these armed militias will trigger a backlash, creating yet another excuse for delaying COHA implementation. A Deliberate Destabilization Strategy\u2014By embedding heavily armed militias within the illegal settler population, Abiy has made the issue far more complex\u2014ensuring that any attempt to return Tigray\u2019s rightful lands could lead to escalated military confrontations. A Hidden Threat to Tigray\u2019s Security\u2014Even if Ethiopia theoretically agrees to withdraw its federal forces, the presence of a militia embedded in the settler population means that a potential fifth column remains behind, threatening any meaningful return of displaced Tigrayans. The Need for Clear Communication on Settler Removal and Militia Disarmament Tigrayan politicians must clearly and publicly state that returning Western and Southern Tigray is not just about settlers\u2014it is also about dismantling the militarized structures that Abiy has embedded within these territories. They must articulate that: The COHA\u2019s success depends not just on returning displaced Tigrayans but also on the full demilitarization of YeTekeze Zeb and similar militias. The Ethiopian government must take responsibility for ensuring that militias do not remain behind as a destabilizing force. Any attempt to use armed settlers as a justification for delaying the return of displaced Tigrayans must be rejected outright. What Tigray Must Say Clearly Tigray\u2019s leadership must abandon vague, open-ended statements and speak in absolute, unambiguous terms: Abiy\u2019s selective implementation of the COHA must be challenged: No real peace can exist while Ethiopian, Amhara, and Eritrean forces remain in occupied Tigrayan territories. The return of displaced Tigrayans is non-negotiable: It is not enough to say that IDPs should return \u201cgradually\u201d or \u201cwhen conditions allow.\u201d A transparent, monitored process must be enforced. All illegal settlers in Western and Southern Tigray must leave immediately. No federal administration over occupied territories: The AU must not be allowed to frame this as a neutral compromise. Any federal control over Tigrayan lands is occupation and must be rejected outright. The Consequences of Failing to Be Clear The alternative is not just a loss in negotiations\u2014it is the slow erosion of Tigray\u2019s very existence. If Tigray\u2019s leaders fail to assert themselves clearly, Abiy will continue manipulating the process until the region is carved up beyond repair. There is no room for compromise on this issue\u2014Tigray\u2019s survival depends on absolute clarity and unwavering resolve. Moving forward, Tigray must demand legally binding commitments with clearly defined enforcement mechanisms. It must stop relying on ambiguous diplomatic engagements that allow Abiy to dictate terms. If clarity is not ensured from the negotiation phase, the implementation and monitoring phases will be doomed to failure. Tigray has already seen how a lack of clarity in COHA led to the manipulation of the IRA formation, the continuation of occupation in Western and Southern Tigray, and Abiy\u2019s unchecked diplomatic victories. This cannot happen again. Tigray must dictate the terms of its survival\u2014not wait for others to define them.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6100","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6100","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6100"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6100\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6125,"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6100\/revisions\/6125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6100"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6100"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tigrayinsights.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6100"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}