Our urgent task is not to guess every move on the battlefield. It is to protect Tigray’s people, economy and collective identity, because no people disappears in a day. It disappears when it hands over its institutions, its language and its memory. We will hand over none. Yes, Abiy’s army has entered Tigray, and nobody outside the command rooms can tell us how long it will stay. It could be weeks, months or years. We still do not understand why they advanced so fast, or why our forces left some places. Maybe it is a plan, maybe a breakdown, maybe a secret arrangement that none of us can see yet.…

Something important has changed around Tigray. Addis Ababa can no longer treat its crises as separate files, opening, delaying or containing them one at a time. The new alignments have given Tigray more room to act, but they have not made us secure. መኸተ must now bring these relationships under one disciplined national strategy, independent in judgment, careful in timing, and judged first by whether it protects our people through the deepening drought. Leverage that cannot keep food, water and life moving is not leverage for Tigray. The alliance announced this week is not the beginning of the change around Tigray. It is confirmation that a change already underway has…

Every path before us carries risk. Our task now is not to settle Tigray’s final destination, but to make sure each phase leaves us stronger, less isolated, and still able to choose the next. Our displaced people remain displaced, our economy remains badly wounded, and now drought linked to the ongoing El Niño is again threatening families whose capacity to absorb another disaster is already exhausted. The kiremt rains were forecast months ago to fall below what the northern highlands need, and a forecast like that cannot be appealed. Political alignments are moving. Old enemies are talking. Forces that disagree on almost everything are finding immediate reasons to cooperate. Addis…

The attacks on Tigray may be preparation for another war. But I think something else may also be happening: Addis may be trying to force us to move before the new strategic relationships around Tigray become strong enough to change the balance. The situation in Tigray is becoming more dangerous by the day. Since the beginning of August, we have seen fighting around Shererina, drone attacks in Merewa, attacks around Mariam Kubi and Dandera, and now bombing in Mekelle itself. People are being wounded, families are afraid, and once again Tigrayans are living with the fear of another war. For me, this is not news I follow from a distance.…

Recovered leverage is not victory. It is a test of judgment: Tigray must turn its growing room to maneuver into durable gains without making the survival of its people depend on assumptions that may prove wrong. Tigray is no longer where it was under the transitional arrangement. The endurance of our people, the sacrifices of those who defended Tigray, and the political decisions that moved us beyond that arrangement have given Tigray more room to shape events than it had before. That progress is real. It is also the reason I am writing. Recovered agency gives us choices we did not have before. It also gives us new ways to…

I loved the country that taught me to disappear inside it. I know now that a culture can hold you completely and still not hold your name, and that no state worth keeping asks a people to vanish to belong. Before the letter This is a political letter, not a dissertation. Its point of entry is one life: a Tigrayan childhood formed partly through Amharic language, literature, music, religion, and public culture, and later forced to confront the conditions attached to that belonging. Personal memory cannot settle every historical dispute, and I do not ask it to. Where the argument depends on law, population, boundaries, or documentary history, I place…

Mekhete must be anchored in Tigray’s non-negotiable national purpose and guided by clear, measurable objectives. But Tigray should not lock itself into one final political destination before the balance of power, the conduct of its partners, the viability of coexistence, and the growth of its own capacity have revealed which destination can most securely protect its people. Over the past several weeks, as meetings have widened across Tigray and the language of መኸተ (Mekhete) has become more visible in our public conversation, one question has moved quietly to the center of everything: what, exactly, is all of this trying to achieve? I hear the question in different registers. For some,…

Why Washington’s Strategic Diagnosis Keeps Failing the Region America is deeply present in the Horn of Africa, yet increasingly unable to see the region it is trying to stabilize.Ambassador Massinga’s visit to Mekelle is not the story. The framework that sent him is. * This essay builds on earlier TigrayInsights analyses of Western Tigray, Sudan, and the language of diplomacy. It examines U.S. policy from the perspective of long-term strategic effectiveness rather than immediate diplomatic events. The analysis reflects developments through July 18, 2026. ** This essay is written for anyone concerned with peace and stability in the Horn of Africa, but I hope Tigrayans, wherever we are, read it…

Public Confidence, Political Responsibility, and the Future of መኸተ መኸተ carried Tigray through an existential struggle. Its next test is whether sacrifice can be converted into lasting national capacity. TPLF carries the greatest responsibility because it leads. But leadership is not ownership. It means correcting weaknesses honestly, preserving public confidence, aligning every institution with national priorities, and organizing committed and capable Tigrayans beyond familiar political circles. The burden of carrying a nation is to remain worthy of the people who sustain it. Why I wanted to write this Of all the essays I have written in recent months, this is the one I have been most reluctant to begin, because…

Mekhete saved Tigray. Now it must evolve to achieve what survival alone cannot: the return of the displaced, the restoration of occupied territories, justice for genocide, and the recovery of Tigray’s full national rights. Recent exchanges in Ethiopian political and parliamentary discourse have once again illustrated something that many Tigrayan observers like me have been tracking for some time. The contest over Tigray’s future is no longer confined to the battlefield. Military pressure is accompanied by political maneuvering, information campaigns, constitutional and legal contestation, institutional disruption, economic conditioning, international messaging, and sustained efforts to shape how Tigray is perceived — both domestically and abroad. Whether one agrees with every characterization…