The AU Assembly, Abiy’s Ambitions, and the Shadow of War: A Fragile Peace in Ethiopia

The recent African Union (AU) Assembly brought Ethiopia’s fragile peace process into sharp focus, revealing a complex interplay of shifting political strategies and calculated maneuvers. While the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) sought to elevate the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) as an international issue, Abiy Ahmed’s administration worked behind the scenes to control the narrative in its favor. Despite ongoing challenges, the political climate surrounding Ethiopia’s peace process remains highly dynamic, demanding swift adaptability and strategic clarity from Tigray’s leadership.

Tigray’s Strategic Diplomacy at the AU Assembly

In the lead-up to the AU Assembly, Tigray’s leadership intensified its diplomatic efforts to ensure COHA remained a priority on the international agenda. High-level engagements with European diplomats, including visits by several ambassadors to Tigray, underscored a concerted push to internationalize the peace process. These interactions were instrumental in securing a dedicated COHA session during the assembly, ensuring that Tigray’s concerns remained prominent on the continental agenda.

Contrary to being a goodwill gesture from Abiy Ahmed, the elevation of COHA at the AU Assembly resulted from Tigray’s persistent diplomatic efforts. By bringing the agreement to this level, Tigray ensured that COHA remained an international issue rather than being relegated to a domestic dispute. Although the AU Commission’s report on COHA implementation favored Abiy, the continued global attention on the region underscores the need for Tigray’s leadership to remain proactive in shaping the narrative.

Despite internal divisions within the Tigrayan political elite, their presence at the assembly demonstrated remarkable unity. Debretsion and Getachew conveyed a shared dissatisfaction with the slow implementation of COHA, presenting a united front in their engagements with AU officials. Their coordinated efforts—sitting together, engaging with mediators, and presenting a cohesive stance—sent a clear message: Tigray’s leadership remains aligned in addressing the core challenges of the agreement, even as it faces immense pressure to compromise on its legitimate demands.

The AU’s Role: A Shield for Abiy’s Manipulations

While Tigray’s leadership sought to amplify its position, the AU’s handling of COHA inadvertently reinforced Abiy Ahmed’s ability to manipulate the narrative. The AU Commission’s report on COHA implementation painted an overwhelmingly positive picture, portraying Abiy as a committed peacemaker while glossing over critical unresolved issues. These include the continued occupation of Western and Southern Tigray, the presence of illegal settlers, and the economic blockade imposed on the region.

Despite its claims of impartiality, the AU’s role has been heavily influenced by political considerations. The report strategically omitted Ethiopia’s violations of the agreement and failed to establish independent enforcement mechanisms. While it boasted about the “successful silencing of the guns,” it ignored systematic delays in implementing key provisions, such as the withdrawal of occupying forces and the return of displaced persons.

Moreover, the AU’s media strategy ensured that Ethiopia’s violations remained unchallenged. By controlling external narratives, the organization prevented widespread acknowledgment of the Ethiopian government’s failures, reinforcing Abiy’s international image as a stabilizing force. The AU’s decision to ignore formal monitoring mechanisms means COHA implementation remains entirely at Ethiopia’s discretion—an inherent flaw in the process. The report also emphasized the AU’s financial independence, yet its reliance on external logistical and political support—particularly from actors aligned with Abiy—highlights its structural limitations in holding Ethiopia accountable.

Abiy Ahmed’s Narrative Management and Shifting Strategies

Abiy Ahmed’s administration has masterfully leveraged its relationships with key AU officials to ensure that reports on Ethiopia’s peace process align with its broader political ambitions. By framing COHA as a success, Abiy not only bolstered his image but also shifted diplomatic attention away from the fundamental issues that remain unresolved. The challenge for Tigray’s leadership, therefore, is to consistently counter this messaging and ensure that COHA’s true status is recognized internationally.

Beyond diplomatic posturing, Abiy’s approach appears to be entering a new phase. While publicly promoting peace, his administration has simultaneously intensified its military preparations and expanded its strategic maneuvers to weaken Tigray’s ability to assert itself. The UAE’s financial support not only helps Abiy pay for political transactions in the AU but also allows him to sustain policies that bypass genuine accountability. This transactional diplomacy has emboldened Ethiopia’s leadership to delay COHA implementation while still benefiting from international financial flows. This duplicity highlights the importance of Tigray’s leadership adapting to rapidly shifting circumstances rather than being drawn into a static diplomatic framework.

Abiy’s Anti-Eritrean Rhetoric: A Calculated Diversion?

In recent weeks, Abiy’s administration has escalated its rhetoric against Eritrea, with close political allies such as former President Mulatu Teshome calling for international condemnation of Eritrea’s destabilizing role in the Horn of Africa. While this shift in tone may appear to signal a broader geopolitical recalibration, its deeper implications warrant scrutiny:

• Domestic Distraction: A conflict with Eritrea could rally nationalist sentiment, unifying Ethiopia’s fractured political landscape under the pretext of securing access to the Red Sea.
• Strategic Pressure on Tigray: By framing Eritrea as a primary adversary, Abiy could justify renewed military actions in Tigray, portraying the region’s leadership as complicit in a broader geopolitical conflict.
• Deflecting International Scrutiny: A military confrontation with Eritrea could shift attention away from Ethiopia’s failure to implement COHA, reducing pressure on Abiy’s administration while keeping Tigray politically constrained.

The Implications for Ethiopia’s Political Landscape

The evolving situation underscores Abiy’s broader strategy of consolidating power while systematically weakening regional forces that could challenge his authority. His transactional approach to diplomacy, combined with his ability to manipulate domestic political divisions, has enabled him to maintain an upper hand in shaping Ethiopia’s political trajectory. However, this approach comes at a cost: the continued occupation of Western and Southern Tigray, the presence of illegal settlers, and the economic strangulation of the region remain significant obstacles to lasting peace.

For Tigray’s leadership, the path forward requires a dual focus: maintaining political cohesion and securing international backing for COHA’s full implementation. The return of millions of displaced Tigrayans and the withdrawal of occupying forces must remain central to all diplomatic engagements moving forward.

Conclusion: Strategic Adaptation in a Volatile Landscape

The AU Assembly provided a platform for Tigray’s leadership to reaffirm its commitment to peace, but the rapidly shifting political landscape demands a recalibration of strategies. While diplomatic efforts must continue, they must be coupled with proactive messaging that counters Abiy’s narrative manipulation. Tigray’s leadership must sustain a coordinated diplomatic and media campaign that systematically exposes these contradictions—leveraging both diplomatic and media channels to shift international perception and demand enforceable accountability.

The stakes are too high to rely on past frameworks. Tigray must shape its own narrative, dictate the terms of its engagement, and ensure that its legitimate demands are met in the face of Abiy Ahmed’s ongoing political and military maneuvering. Tigray can only secure a just and lasting peace through strategic clarity and unwavering resolve.