A Call for Vigilance: Abiy’s ብርጌድ ንሓመዱ (BNH) Strategy and Tigray’s Path Forward

Faced with persistent conflicts in Amhara and Oromia, Abiy Ahmed finds himself increasingly cornered. Meanwhile, the TPLF’s strategic evolution signals a growing challenge to his authority. To maintain control and distract from internal instability, he is now seeking to ignite further unrest in the region, seeing an opportunity to reshape the political landscape to his advantage.

Abiy Ahmed’s recent political maneuvers further expose his opportunistic and destabilizing approach in the Horn of Africa. ብርጌድ ንሓመዱ (Birgade Nihamedu – BNH), or the “Blue Revolution,” was formed in Europe with the explicit goal of overthrowing Isaias Afwerki by any means necessary, including armed struggle. While they have made progress in securing diplomatic recognition and support, their tactical strategy remains unclear—an opportunity Abiy now seeks to exploit. By hosting a large gathering of this Eritrean diaspora movement in Addis Ababa, he is attempting to position himself as a patron of Eritrean opposition, all while advancing his own agenda. This move starkly contrasts with the Nobel Peace Prize he once received—an award he secured by deceiving the international community to advance his broader agenda of weakening Tigray and the TPLF, rather than pursuing genuine peace with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.

Abiy’s engagement with BNH is not an act of altruism or a genuine commitment to Eritrean liberation from his authoritarian equivalent Isayas Afeworki. Abiy’s actions are not surprising to those who have followed his trajectory. His primary objective has always been to consolidate ‘king’ power by weakening any potential threats to his rule, a kingdom. This includes dismantling the historical Semitic dominance in Ethiopian politics, first by targeting Tigray and now by turning his attention to the Amhara region. His latest gambit involves using Eritrean opposition groups to destabilize Isaias Afwerki’s regime, with the ultimate goal of either restoring Eritrea to Ethiopia or securing control of the strategic Red Sea port of Assab.

For Tigray, this presents both risks and opportunities. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) must navigate this complex landscape with caution and foresight. While Abiy may assume that the TPLF has been weakened beyond recovery, Tigrayans must remain vigilant and strategic. The immediate priority for Tigray should be the liberation of Western Tigray, which remains occupied by Amhara forces. However, the broader regional dynamics demand a more nuanced approach.

Abiy’s Evolving Strategy: Redefining His Regional Ambitions

Abiy is now recalibrating his strategy, clearing his political drawing board to draft a new equation—one that he may use to frame his upcoming party congress. His objectives are evolving, yet they remain deeply rooted in his long-term vision of consolidating power and reshaping regional dynamics.

Abiy’s evolving strategy seems to rest on two main pillars, emboldened by recent geopolitical developments. Isaias Afwerki’s active engagement with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud regarding the security of the Red Sea and stability in Somalia presents a direct challenge to Abiy, fueling his determination to counter Isaias and push forward his own regional agenda. First, he seeks to weaken Eritrea by encouraging armed opposition against Isaias Afwerki through groups like BNH. This aligns with his broader goal of dismantling any potential threats to his rule, much like he attempted with Tigray. Second, he aims to secure Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea, either by restoring Eritrea to Ethiopian control or by annexing Assab. Abiy likely calculates that he can garner international support for this endeavor, particularly from leaders like Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron, who may view his actions as stabilizing the region.

However, this strategy is fraught with risks. If Abiy provokes Isaias Afwerki through BNH, Isaias may retaliate by supporting Amhara forces opposed to Abiy’s rule. This could escalate tensions and lead to a broader conflict, further destabilizing the region. Now, TPLF is firmly demanding the full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement. If Abiy realizes that achieving his objectives concerning Eritrea requires an alliance with Tigray, he will have no choice but to engage. This is why TPLF must approach the situation strategically, ensuring that Pretoria mediators are actively involved to enforce Abiy’s commitment to the agreement as soon as possible. While this process may take time, TPLF must never enter into internal agreements with Abiy without international oversight to guarantee accountability and prevent further manipulation.

TPLF’s Strategic Priorities

For TPLF, the immediate focus must remain on liberating occupied territories in Western Tigray. However, the broader regional dynamics require a more strategic approach. TPLF should avoid actions that could alienate Eritrean opposition groups like BNH, as these groups could become potential allies in the future. Instead, Tigray should explore the possibility of fostering a strong alliance with Eritrean opposition forces, with the long-term goal of creating a confederation of Tigray and Eritrea. Tigrayans must learn from their past mistakes of failing to unite and instead submitting to the interests of their southern neighbors. They must recognize the recurring historical errors and take decisive action to close that chapter once and for all.

At the same time, TPLF must be resolute in its stance against Isaias Afwerki. He is directly responsible for the genocidal acts committed in Tigray, and sooner or later, he must face justice for his actions. TPLF’s strategy should carefully account for this reality while maintaining a clear focus on the most pressing issue: the occupation of Western Tigray by Amhara forces. While Eritrean forces continue to hold parts of Tigray, those areas remain inhabited by Tigrayans, making direct confrontation with Isaias a secondary concern for now. The priority should be to restore Tigrayan sovereignty over Western Tigray before addressing the Eritrean-occupied areas in due course. Confronting Isaias directly at this stage would be premature and could divert resources from more pressing challenges.

The Role of International Actors

The international community must take a firm stance in holding Abiy accountable, ensuring he resolves internal conflicts peacefully, and addressing his unconstitutional actions. Under the guise of restoring law and order, Abiy has violated the FDRE constitution, which provides clear legal mechanisms for resolving regional boundary and administrative disputes—none of which justify launching a genocidal war. The international community must recognize its own complicity through inaction and indifference, which allowed this catastrophic war to unfold. This is the right moment for global actors to rectify past mistakes and contribute to restoring stability to Ethiopia, particularly returning the region to its pre-2018 conditions. It is imperative that global actors use all available diplomatic instruments to enforce compliance with the Pretoria Agreement. Specifically, the agreement facilitators must take an active role in its full implementation by providing the necessary oversight and support.

One of the major obstacles to implementation remains the illegal settlement of hundreds of thousands of new Amhara settlers in Western Tigray. The international community must unequivocally pressure Abiy to reverse this unconstitutional act and uphold legal mechanisms for resolving territorial disputes. Allowing population displacement through aggression sets a dangerous precedent, especially in Ethiopia, where it could spark catastrophic bloodshed. A sustainable resolution requires firm international intervention to ensure disputes are settled through legal frameworks rather than force. Therefore, global mediators play an indispensable role in preventing further escalation and securing long-term stability.

A Common Destiny for Tigrayans and Eritreans

Ultimately, the future of Tigray and Eritrea is intertwined, and BNH and Tigrayan forces must align their strategic objectives to ensure the long-term success of their struggle. Without such coordination, the entire effort risks returning to square one, failing to address the fundamental questions of Tigrayans in both regions. Tigrayans on both sides of the border share a common destiny and must unite to create a political and cultural force capable of withstanding external threats. The removal of Isaias Afwerki, while not an immediate priority for TPLF based on the prevailing circumstances, could pave the way for a new era of cooperation between Tigray and Eritrea. Such a union would not only counter Abiy’s sinister objectives but also ensure the long-term security and prosperity of Tigrayans.

In conclusion, the current political landscape in the Horn of Africa is fraught with danger and opportunity. TPLF must navigate this terrain with wisdom and foresight, prioritizing the liberation of occupied territories while laying the groundwork for a stronger, united future. The stakes are high, and the choices made today will shape the destiny of Tigray and its people for generations to come.