My Personal Cautionary Note on the Current Situation in Tigray

There is a growing recognition that Tigrayan leadership, particularly within the TPLF, is making efforts to mobilize collective resistance against renewed war and to pursue a peaceful path forward grounded in principle and restraint. This direction remains necessary, given the immense human and structural cost of the previous conflict.

However, alongside these efforts, there are serious and increasingly visible headwinds that must not be underestimated.

Tigray today is not only facing external pressure but also internal political disruption, fragmentation, and possible strategic sabotage. These dynamics risk undermining unity, weakening institutional coherence, and diluting the collective position of the Tigrayan people. There are also indications that political maneuvering behind the scenes, both internal and external, may be shaping outcomes in ways that are neither transparent nor aligned with Tigray’s long-term interests.

At the same time, the broader geopolitical environment appears to be influencing federal calculations. With global attention absorbed by crises elsewhere, particularly in the Middle East, there are signs that Abiy Ahmed may be recalibrating his approach. Rather than immediate large-scale confrontation, the current trajectory suggests a shift toward:

• Fragmenting and weakening Tigrayan political and military elites
• Deepening internal divisions
• Intensifying economic pressure by restricting flows of cash, fuel, and essential commodities

This approach risks weakening Tigray from within while avoiding the immediate costs of open conflict.

In this context, it must also be stated with clarity:

The Pretoria Agreement, in its substance and implementation, has already been overtaken by events.

While there may be value in maintaining it as a diplomatic reference point, Tigray’s core demands cannot remain contingent on an agreement that is no longer being meaningfully upheld.

The essential and non-negotiable issues remain:

• Restoration of Tigray’s territorial integrity (status quo ante)
• Safe, dignified, and unconditional return of displaced people

Whether these are pursued under the framework of Pretoria or any other mechanism is secondary. What matters is that they are achieved in substance, not deferred in process.

Failure to resolve these core issues is not a contained risk. It is:

A direct pathway to renewed instability with consequences that could extend beyond Tigray, affecting Ethiopia, the Horn of Africa, and potentially wider international interests.

In such a context, a commitment to peace must not become passive or reactive.

The cost of inaction is now likely to exceed the risks associated with timely, well-considered proactive measures.

The TPLF, as the central political and organizational force, must therefore act with urgency and clarity to:

• Reinforce internal unity and coherence
• Assert clear leadership and direction
• Defend core national interests independent of shifting frameworks
• Preempt further erosion of political, security, and institutional capacity

Peaceful resolution remains the correct strategic path.
But peace without clarity, unity, vigilance, and decisive initiative, risks becoming a pathway to gradual loss of position and strategic disadvantage.

Tigray stands at a delicate moment:

Not yet at war, but not yet secure in peace.

What is done, or not done, at this stage will determine whether Tigray moves toward stabilization with dignity, or toward renewed crisis under weakened conditions.