Abiy’s Dangerous Gamble: Why Tigray’s Will Can’t Be Broken

Abiy Ahmed remains restless in his quest to completely dismantle the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as he once said in the parliament, envisioning its existence reduced to mere dust, scattered irretrievably by the winds of conflict (በዓየር ላይ እንደተበተነ ዱቄት lol). In his March 20, 2025, parliamentary address, Abiy boldly claimed victory over his genocidal war, asserting that he chose peace voluntarily by signing the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA). Yet, subtle cues in his demeanor and delivery suggested an underlying readiness and willingness to resort to military means against the TPLF.

Abiy continues to place his faith in military firepower, believing drones and advanced weaponry grant him absolute dominance. However, history and the lessons from history underscore that military might alone cannot suppress the determined will of a people. Abiy, despite his advanced arsenal, including drones, fails to comprehend that true victory is never won against a people’s resilient will. Even nuclear weapons cannot extinguish the flame of people’s determination.

Moreover, Abiy’s reliance on force dangerously invites a cycle of violence. If military power or violence were indeed the determinant of our region’s future, breaking Abiy’s grip would not be impossible. TPLF and Tigray as a whole have already weathered unprecedented assaults during the devastating 2020-2022 conflict, enduring all manner of atrocities unleashed by forces intent on complete destruction.

Today, circumstances have evolved. While acknowledging Abiy’s potential to unleash further brutalities—his destructive nature unchanged—it remains crucial to emphasize clearly to him and to the international community that the TDF possesses the capability to deliver a decisive blow, not necessarily from within Tigray itself, but directly confronting his aggression head-on. No amount of violence can subdue Tigray’s unwavering determination.

In his address to the parliament, Abiy unashamedly stated his readiness to resettle Tigray’s internally displaced persons (IDPs) starting immediately. He naively—or cynically—suggests that peace would be achieved by forcing our people into their homes currently occupied by those who perpetrated genocide against them. Such a proposal defies logic and basic human decency, clearly demonstrating his true intentions. As consistently emphasized in my previous articles, Western Tigray remains Abiy’s strategic joker card, essential for maintaining his grip on power in Ethiopia. Without control over Western Tigray, Abiy knows his fragile kingship would collapse swiftly, jeopardizing the carefully constructed Oromo Prosperity Party narrative and potentially igniting further unrest within Oromia and elsewhere.

It is crucial to highlight that Tigray’s current relationship with Abiy, and indeed the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE), is governed explicitly by the COHA—an internationally recognized agreement demanding, above all, the restoration of constitutional order. The establishment of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA), though marred by Abiy’s sinister interference, was intended to address critical issues outlined in the COHA, primarily restoring the status quo. Yet, Abiy’s and Oromo PP’s deliberate strategy has actively undermined TIRA, fueling internal divisions among Tigray’s political and military entities over the past two years.

However, it must be clearly understood that any restructuring of TIRA remains a joint responsibility of both COHA signatories. Abiy has no authority to unilaterally dictate the formation or reformation of TIRA. Procedures must be collaboratively developed, ensuring mutual agreement rather than unilateral imposition by Abiy. For its part, TPLF has consistently called for TIRA to be effectively restructured to expedite the resolution of critical issues stipulated in the COHA agreement.

The TPLF must boldly articulate a definitive stance: unless Abiy restores the constitutional status quo, completely withdraws occupying forces from Tigrayan territories, and commits to using legal and constitutional means to resolve this conflict, Tigray is prepared to confront any aggression decisively. Our message to the world is straightforward: we seek constitutional, peaceful solutions but stand ready to defend our sovereignty and territorial integrity through whatever means necessary.

Abiy’s strategic experiments aim to weaken the North, driven by his aspirations to dominate the Red Sea region. The unity of Tigrayans, both within and beyond our immediate borders, stands as his most formidable obstacle. He employs delaying tactics, hoping to exploit internal divisions and consolidate control.

However, Tigray remains vigilant. Our strategic calculations are clear and unwavering. Any future military confrontation will solidify our resolve, determining our strategic alignments to guarantee long-term security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Abiy must understand this unequivocally.

This is our stance. Tigray’s resilience, backed by an unbreakable will, remains our ultimate assurance against aggression and our steadfast path toward lasting peace and dignity.