The Western Approach to TPLF and Tigray: Strategic Reflections

The United States and its Western allies have consistently shown a strategic interest in Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray’s politics. Recent actions suggest a concerted effort to weaken or eliminate the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a political force. This approach, often framed as a necessary step to stabilize Ethiopia and align it with neoliberal economic models, is fundamentally flawed. Not only does it misinterpret Ethiopia’s complex political landscape, but it also risks triggering consequences far worse than the crises seen in places like Syria, Libya, or Iraq.

A False Narrative of Unity

The Western perspective on Ethiopia has long been rooted in the myth of a unified empire. This narrative conveniently ignores the reality: Ethiopia is a nation of profound ethnic, linguistic, and cultural diversity with deep historical fractures. The federal structure established under the TPLF-led Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) acknowledged this diversity, offering a framework for self-determination and regional autonomy. However, this structure has been eroded under Abiy Ahmed’s administration, which has sought to centralize power while marginalizing regions like Tigray.

Efforts to undermine the TPLF are driven by a belief that the party’s resistance to neoliberal reforms and its emphasis on sovereignty threaten Western interests. Yet this view fails to consider that the TPLF, while rooted in a Marxist-Leninist ideology during its early years, has not only demonstrated a pragmatic willingness to engage with market-oriented policies but was actively preparing the foundations for a liberal economy. Democracy, in this context, was viewed as a gradual process tied to social transformation. During this period, there was tacit support from the West, with institutions like the IMF and World Bank providing consistent backing for Ethiopia’s economic reforms under the TPLF/EPRDF leadership.

Western Policies and Their Fallout

In recent years, the U.S. and Western financial institutions like the World Bank and IMF have thrown their support behind Abiy Ahmed. Unlike the tacit support offered during the TPLF/EPRDF era, which balanced economic reforms with foundational efforts for a liberal economy and gradual democratic transformation, the current backing represents a stark departure. Abiy, in advancing his selfish and sinister objectives, has embraced a complete blanket of policies dictated by these institutions that entirely disregard the interests and welfare of Ethiopia’s people. This uncritical support has emboldened his administration to prioritize neoliberal reforms at the expense of human rights and stability, culminating in the genocidal war in Tigray. Notably, this war preceded the full embrace of policies dictated by these Western institutions. Abiy’s submission to their interests came after the war’s devastating economic impacts. Now, the consequences of this alignment extend far beyond Tigray. Ongoing clashes in Amhara, Oromia, Gambela, Somalia, Benishangul, and the Southern Nations reflect a nation in turmoil, with the Ethiopian army engaged in fighting against its people, deepening the crisis further. The immense suffering, displacement, and famine resulting from this war highlight the dangers of supporting a regime that exploits international goodwill for authoritarian consolidation.

While international media occasionally highlights Ethiopia’s dire political, social, and economic crises, Western diplomatic corridors largely ignore these issues. The focus remains on implementing neoliberal policies, even as they exacerbate poverty, income inequality, and migration. This selective engagement undermines any claims of promoting democracy or human rights, prioritizing strategic interests over humanitarian concerns.

The Strategic Miscalculation

The attempt to dissolve the TPLF through internal subversion, including possible collaboration with figures like Abiy Ahmed and alleged CIA involvement, reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of Ethiopia’s dynamics. The TPLF is not merely a political party but a symbol of Tigray’s aspirations for sovereignty, safety, and territorial integrity. The perception that Tigray will remain part of “Abiy’s empire” is increasingly implausible. The war and its aftermath have solidified Tigray’s resolve to determine its future, rendering any efforts to impose unity counterproductive.

Moreover, a fragmented Ethiopia does not necessarily undermine Western interests in the Horn of Africa. On the contrary, smaller, autonomous states could contribute to regional stability and provide reliable partnerships if established peacefully and with robust governance. The insistence on preserving an ‘unworkable’ unity risks prolonging conflict and destabilizing the entire region.

The Need for a Recalibrated Approach

The U.S. and its allies must reassess their strategy toward Ethiopia and Tigray. It is essential to recognize the TPLF as a legitimate actor and engage with its leadership in good faith. A continued attempt to marginalize the TPLF will deepen Ethiopia’s internal crises and erode trust in Western intentions. Such a miscalculation could have devastating human and geopolitical costs, with ripple effects extending far beyond Ethiopia’s borders.

In conclusion, the Western approach to TPLF and Tigray requires urgent reevaluation, particularly as the U.S. enters a period of potential policy shifts under the Trump administration. Recognizing the genocidal war in Tigray and addressing its aftermath is critical for restoring Tigray’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The U.S. must pressure Abiy Ahmed’s regime to adhere to democratic norms, ensure the return of millions of displaced Tigrayans, and support efforts for lasting peace.

The Trump administration could be pivotal in reorienting U.S. policy to prioritize humanitarian concerns and democratic governance. By holding Abiy accountable and fostering dialogue with all Ethiopian stakeholders, including the TPLF, the U.S. can help mitigate the ongoing crises and support a sustainable future for the Horn of Africa. Without such recalibration, the region risks further destabilization with consequences extending beyond Ethiopia’s borders.